The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● TX-27: On Thursday, GOP Rep. Blake Farenthold announced he would not seek re-election to his safely red Corpus Christi-area seat, though he would complete the rest of his term. Earlier this week, the Texas congressman decided to run for a fifth term even after Politico reported that he had used $84,000 in taxpayer money to settle a sexual harassment lawsuit with his former communications director Lauren Greene, and more former staffers came forward with ugly stories about his office. The House Ethics Committee had closed their investigation into Greene's allegations long ago, but they reopened it in the face of new evidence.
Things got even worse for the incumbent on Wednesday when Michael Rekola, another former Farenthold communications director, told CNN about the toxic environment Farenthold helped foster. Rekola described how Farenthold bullied him so much that he vomited daily and sought medical treatment and psychological counseling. Farenthold made offensive jokes at the expense of Rekola's fiancée, and the congressman frequently labeled his employees "fucktards." Farenthold acknowledged he had indeed referred to his aides this way, but insisted that it was "in jest, not in anger."
But this story was apparently the final straw for GOP House leaders. Speaker Paul Ryan had declined to call for Farenthold to resign at the beginning of the month, and his spokesperson even sounded dismissive of Greene's claims that her former boss harassed and improperly filed her. But Ryan reportedly privately recently asked the Texas Republican to retire, though not to resign.
Candidate filing closed on Monday in Texas, so not only is it too late for anyone new to run, but Farenthold's name will remain on the March primary ballot. Bech Bruun had resigned as chair of the Texas Water Board to run here, and he's now very much the favorite to win the GOP primary in this 60-37 Trump seat. Michael Cloud, the former chair of the Victoria County Republican Party, is also running, and he has the endorsement of ex-Rep. Ron Paul. However, Cloud hadn't raised much money when he was challenging Farenthold, and it's unlikely he'll be much of a threat to the better-connected Bruun.
As for Farenthold, his decision to retire, belated as it was, ends the unexpectedly long career of a truly accidental congressman.
Back in 2010, Farenthold challenged Democratic Rep. Solomon Ortiz for a seat that had backed Obama 53-46 in 2008, and he only narrowly won his primary by 244 votes. Farenthold hailed from a prominent Texas Democratic political family, but hardly anyone had heard of the conservative radio host until a month before Election Day.
Farenthold attracted national attention after the infamous picture became public that showed him in duck pajamas with a scantily clad model from a group called "The Crush Girls" leaning up against him, and most political observers (including us) thought this was the last we'd hear about him. But horrible Democratic turnout helped propel Farenthold to a shocking 775-vote win against Ortiz.
Plenty of these so-called "accidental congressmen" wind up in the House thanks to unusual circumstances and promptly lose the next cycle (oh hi Fred Heineman, Joseph Cao, and Kerry Bentivolio!), but Farenthold benefited from some extremely good timing. The GOP was in charge of redistricting for the next cycle, and Farenthold was gifted with a seat that had backed McCain 59-40. Farenthold faced no credible GOP primary opposition in 2012 or 2014, and he soon blended in with the rest of the GOP caucus.
But things began to change in late 2014 when Greene publicly sued Farenthold for sexual harassment and wrongful termination, saying he "regularly drank to excess" and told another employee he had" sexual fantasies" about her, and fired her after she complained about him and his top aide. Around that same time, the Huffington Post dug up several of Farenthold's old online comments on a forum geared toward frequent fliers that spanned from 2006 to 2010, the year he was elected to the House. Among other things, Farenthold wrote, "Pregnant wife in [business class] with me in [economy] = waste of 9 hours of free booze. Pregnant wife in [economy] with me in [business class] = waste of 9 MONTHS of my happiness." We also learned around that same time that Farenthold had owned a domain name called "Blow-me.org," which his office said he would not be renewing.
We predicted in late 2014 that "Blake Farenthold's problems may only be just beginning," but we had no idea it would take another three years for them to come home to roost. Greene's lawsuit against Farenthold was settled in late 2015, though we didn't know taxpayer money was used until this month. The story disappeared from the headlines afterward, but plenty of GOP voters still were not happy with their congressman. Farenthold only faced a little-known and underfunded opponent in the March 2016 primary, but he won renomination just 56-44. Farenthold seemed likely to win again this cycle until his many disgusting actions finally caught up with him.
Finally, there's one sad coda to this whole story. Politico recently checked in with Greene, and she described how she was blacklisted from D.C. jobs after Farenthold fired her in 2014, and how she hasn't been able to get a full-time job ever since.
Senate
● AZ-Sen: Most press accounts have treated GOP Rep. Martha McSally as almost certain to seek Jeff Flake's Senate seat ever since early November, but she still hasn't kicked off a campaign. Why the lengthy delay? The New York Times speculates that if John McCain resigns on account of the aggressive form of brain cancer he announced he'd been diagnosed with earlier this year, GOP Gov. Doug Ducey could appoint McSally as a replacement.
That could seriously screw Republicans in the Flake race, because right now, their only candidate is still mondo nutter Kelli Ward, while Democrats have landed a top recruit in Rep. Kyrsten Sinema. And the longer McSally waits, the harder it'll be for a less, ah, exotic Republican to jump in, stop Ward, and then beat Sinema. Arizona's primary isn't until late August, so that does give the GOP a little bit of wiggle room, but given how the cycle is shaping up, this isn't where Republicans want to find themselves right now.
● FL-Sen: Most political observers have treated Rick Scott as a likely, if not probable, challenger to Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson next year, but a new report in the New York Times on the fallout of the GOP's historic loss in Alabama now casts some doubt on a Scott candidacy. Unnamed Scott advisers tell Jonathan Martin and Alex Burns that the term-limited governor is "mindful of the midterm climate" and is "not yet sold" on running against Nelson—and it certainly seems that with each passing day, that sales pitch is only going to get tougher and tougher for Republican recruiters.
Scott, of course, is extraordinarily wealthy (earlier this year, he reported a net worth of $149 million, and he pumped in $90 million of his own money into his two gubernatorial bids), so he can self-fund enormous sums. That, combined with his universal name recognition, would allow Scott to delay an unusually long time before declaring for the Senate compared to your typical candidate.
But whenever a behemoth like Scott keeps everyone waiting, it freezes the field and prevents others from raising money and establishing their campaigns, which is all the more crucial in a huge state like Florida. So if, in the end, Scott decides not to run, he'd not only deprive the GOP of their most prominent option, he'd also leave any alternative candidates starting in a deep hole.
● MS-Sen: Following Democrat Doug Jones' miraculous victory in Tuesday's Senate election in Alabama, Democrats are giving a new look at seemingly tough races elsewhere in the country. Like Alabama until Jones prevailed, Mississippi hasn't elected a Democratic senator in decades. However, the party may sense an opportunity if GOP Sen. Roger Wicker loses a primary to neo-Confederate state Sen. Chris McDaniel, who barely lost as a tea party primary challenger to GOP Sen. Thad Cochran in 2014; McDaniel has said he'll decide on a campaign in January. Democrats currently have no notable candidate running, but Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley recently called Jones' victory "a bright ray of sunshine" and said he'll decide whether to run for Senate by the end of 2017.
Presley, who actually is related to that Elvis Presley, would give Democrats a candidate with an unusually strong profile for such a conservative state. He serves as one of just three members on a body that regulates public utilities, and Presley won his 2015 re-election by 61-39 in a deeply conservative district that favored Donald Trump by a brutal 61-37 last year. That win demonstrates a solid track record of winning over the sort of conservative white voters needed to prevail in this racially polarized state. His northeastern Mississippi seat also covers one-third of the state, meaning he should start out with some relatively significant name recognition. Furthermore, Presley may have little to lose by running for Senate in 2018, since he won't be up for re-election until 2019 and wouldn't have to give up his seat.
Politico reports that national Democrats have been recruiting Presley to run, and he would give the party a very credible contender if he ends up running. However, Mississippi has been one of the most intransigently GOP states in the country at the federal level in recent years, just like Alabama. It would likely take a convergence of factors including a deeply flawed Republican nominee, an incredibly pro-Democratic political environment, and a surge in Democratic turnout for Presley to even have a shot at pulling off the upset. But Jones' recent win is a reminder that even historic upsets sometimes happen in politics, and you can't win if you don't have a strong candidate in place to take advantage of unexpected opportunities.
● TN-Sen: Attorney and Iraq War veteran James Mackler announced on Thursday that he was dropping out of the Democratic primary for Senate, leaving former Gov. Phil Bredesen as the only notable Democrat in the race. Mackler had jumped into the contest several months ago, had a potentially appealing biography, and also raised a credible amount of money for such an uphill state. However, national Democrats had heavily recruited Bredesen to run, and the sought-after former governor will likely face little opposition in next year's primary.
● WI-Sen: WPA Intelligence has conducted a new poll for businessman Kevin Nicholson in the Republican primary for Senate, which gives him a 30-23 lead over state Sen. Leah Vukmir for the nomination to take on Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin. Nicholson jumped into the race several weeks before Vukmir, and his allies have already begun airing TV spots on his behalf. Those ads may have increased his name recognition enough to give him an early lead. However, this survey mainly just shows that the primary is still wide open, since both Nicholson and Vukmir will have to introduce themselves to the broader primary electorate and undecided voters.
Gubernatorial
● CT-Gov: Businessman Ned Lamont previously declared in late November that he was considering joining the Democratic primary for governor in 2018 and planned to decide by the end of this year. Lamont recently clarified that he "will make up [his] mind in early January," and the Hartford Courant raised the possibility that he could eschew Connecticut's strict public financing regime by running as a self-funder. However, Lamont only called that speculation "premature," which isn't exactly a "no."
● PA-Gov: State Sen. Scott Wagner, who made millions in the waste-disposal business, is out with his first ad of the Republican primary. Wagner says if there's one thing he knows much about, it's taking out the trash. He asserts his plan will "junk the property tax, cut wasteful spending, and put big government in the dumpster." Wagner blasts career politicians in Harrisburg, but of course conveniently omits the fact that he himself is a state senator. Sorry bud, you're a Harrisburg politician yourself.
House
● AZ-02: While Pima County Commissioner Richard Elías reportedly has been considering seeking the Democratic nod for this swing seat, he's announced he won't do it.
● NV-04: A second woman has come forward to accuse Democratic Rep. Ruben Kihuen of sexually harassing her, saying that Kihuen "touched her thighs or buttocks on three separate occasions without her consent" when he was a state senator and she worked as a lobbyist. She also shared hundreds of text messages of a sexual nature with the Nevada Independent in which Kihuen said things like, "What color are your panties?", "You should come sit on my lap" (during a committee hearing), and "I'm sure you look even better naked."
The woman, who requested anonymity, repeatedly rebuffed Kihuen and said she endured his advances because she concluded "that's how you're treated" when the legislature is in session. She said she decided to speak out after a former Kihuen staffer accused him of sexual harassment two weeks ago. When the Independent reached out to Kihuen about this latest story, he said he "dated several different women" during his time in the legislature. Kihuen's new accuser said they'd never dated, adding, "I don't know what his definition of dating is, but usually dating is a mutual decision between two people to do things alone, which I never, ever did with him."
Top House Democrats, including Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and DCCC chair Ben Ray Lujan, had already called on Kihuen to resign in the wake of the first story, and the D-Trip even removed Kihuen, who was only first elected last year, from their program designed to protect vulnerable incumbents. Kihuen has so far resisted these demands, but if he doesn't accede, he's all but certain to earn a challenge in next year's primary.
● PA-15: How would the GOP like another headache in a cycle filled with nothing but migraines? Rep. Charlie Dent, who had already announced he'd retire at the end of this term, now confirms that he's in talks to become a TV analyst … and could resign early in order to so do. That would trigger a second special election in Pennsylvania, along with one taking place in March in the 18th District, but Dent's seat is a whole lot bluer. While Donald Trump won the Lehigh Valley-based 15th District 52-44, Mitt Romney only carried it 51-48, and we've already seen a lot of comparable districts that moved toward Trump last year shift back in the Democratic election since 2016.
Indeed, as special election watchers know, Democrats have made many seats much redder than this one competitive, and have even won a bunch. The one problem is that Democratic recruitment for next November's regularly scheduled election has fallen somewhat short so far, but the excitement of a special election should juice interest in this race and give Democrats an excellent chance to flip a second seat on the federal level ahead of the 2018 midterms.
● TX-21: The anti-tax group the Club for Growth has joined their ally Sen. Ted Cruz and backed former Cruz Chief of Staff Chip Roy in the very crowded primary to succeed GOP Rep. Lamar Smith. There's no obvious frontrunner for this 52-42 Trump seat, which stretches from Austin to San Antonio and takes up part of the Texas Hill Country. The Club has a history of spending heavily in primaries they care about, and their support for Roy could make a big difference, especially if other national groups stay out.
Grab Bag
● Where Are They Now?: We haven't seen the last of ex-Rep. Nick Lampson, a Texas Democrat who served two different stints in the House. Lampson is challenging Republican Jeff Branick, who serves as judge in coastal Jefferson County, in this November's general election, and he has the primary to himself. Branick recently switched from the Democrats to the GOP. In Texas, county judges function as both a county executive and a legislature. Jefferson is a competitive county that swung from 50-49 Obama to 49-48 Trump. Lampson carried Jefferson 58-41 in 2012 during his unsuccessful bid against Republican Randy Weber for the 14th Congressional District.