El Salvador’s future is finally looking up. That has China interested

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This summer, more than a full year ahead of the 2020 presidential election, the United States signed asylum agreements with each country in Central America’s Northern Triangle: Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras. These nations have been the largest source of migrants coming into the U.S. through its border with Mexico and a constant source of political controversy for President Trump and his Democratic opponents.

Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras all suffer from among the world’s highest murder rates. Despite being the smallest country of the three, El Salvador sits between Guatemala and Honduras. It is the key to stemming migration flows and to revamping the region’s image. With a new president since June, changes are afoot in El Salvador, and the world, including China, is taking note.

At 38 years old, Nayib Bukele is El Salvador’s youngest president ever. A charismatic, tech-savvy millennial with slicked-back hair and a signature leather jacket, Bukele looks more like John Travolta in his Grease days than a conservative-leaning head of state focused on rooting out corruption, ending a decades-long epidemic of gang violence, and aligning more closely with the United States for economic and political support.

Bukele is also the youngest president in Latin America. After less than a year in office, he has an 88% approval rating, making a name for himself as the first Salvadoran president to aggressively tackle corruption and violence head-on and to come to the table with the United States in a landmark asylum agreement.

Foreign Policy notes that during Bukele’s first 150 days in office, the murder rate dropped significantly, and “the first seven months of 2019 were the least violent months in the last 15 years (except for 2013 and the 2012 gang truce). On July 31, not a single killing was recorded—only the eighth murder-free day in 19 years.”

Bukele has assembled an International Commission against Impunity in El Salvador, backed by the Organization of American States, to tackle corruption that can help restore law and order in the country. Salvadoran residents themselves speak of an improving security climate in the country, with people going out at night and gathering in public parks and plazas that were previously avoided because of gang violence. On Oct. 2, the U.S. State Department even lowered its travel warning for El Salvador.

The agreement reached between El Salvador and the United States resembles similar U.S. asylum cooperation agreements with neighbors Honduras and Guatemala. Trump touts these agreements as successful and has promised “targeted assistance in the areas of law enforcement & security.”

So far, the U.S. has sent two flights of migrants to Guatemala, which is the first country set up to receive migrants from the Northern Triangle countries. In October, the State Department notified Congress it would be reinstating assistance to the Northern Triangle countries for security, asylum protection, and private industry support. Reportedly, $143 million of the previously frozen aid will be released, and the finance ministers of Mexico and the Northern Triangle countries met at the White House with Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin to devise an economic growth strategy to help address the driving factors of illegal immigration.

El Salvador’s foreign policy is also transforming under Bukele. Whereas the previous left-wing government had been a close ally to the Nicolas Maduro regime in Venezuela, the new government announced on Nov. 3 that Venezuela’s diplomats had 48 hours to leave the country. El Salvador’s previous president had regularly opposed the United States and Organization of American States against resolutions targeting Venezuela, and in return, benefited from cheap energy products from Venezuela. This, too, has changed.

El Salvador’s new political and security choices have seemingly been rewarded. For example, the U.S. has reversed its termination of Temporary Protected Status for Salvadoran migrants living in the United States, leaving it in place at least through Jan. 4, 2021.

With El Salvador’s foreign policy goals with the United States largely attained, it has cleared the way to engage other partners. This is where the U.S. needs to be paying attention.

Several agreements recently signed between El Salvador and China may alter the pace of El Salvador’s growing cooperation with the United States. Bukele traveled to Beijing to meet with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping the first week of December. China is planning to build major infrastructure projects in El Salvador, such as a large library, modern stadium, and water supply facilities.

Bukele announced these projects over Twitter, noting that El Salvador will have control over the management and that China is making nonrefundable donations. China will also help redevelop and expand El Salvador’s coastal tourist sites by investing in municipal works and services. The price of this was a public and historic restatement of El Salvador’s “one China” policy, which Bukele had at one point vowed to revisit.

The world’s biggest block of support for Taiwan is in Central America and the Caribbean. China, however, is actively courting the region with lucrative infrastructure projects and the promise of investments, trade, and tourism. So far, Panama, Costa Rica, El Salvador, and the Dominican Republic have all ratified diplomatic ties with China and downgraded their partnerships with Taiwan.

Bukele described this cooperation with China as “nonrefundable,” but could it come at a cost to the growing trust built between El Salvador and the United States? How might Trump look to curb or cooperate with China’s growing presence in El Salvador and the broader region?

These questions and their impact on border security will guide the debate over the next year leading up to the 2020 presidential election in the United States.

Geovanny Vicente Romero (@GeovannyVicentR) is the founder of the Center of Public Policy, Development, and Leadership in the Dominican Republic.

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