Labour is set to overtake the SNP at Westminster and Holyrood to become the dominant force in Scottish politics once more after the leadership crisis that forced Humza Yousaf to resign as first minister, a poll for The Sunday Times has found.
The party, led by Anas Sarwar, has achieved its greatest lead over the SNP in almost a decade with the number of nationalist seats at Westminster expected to tumble by about two thirds.
In a seismic reversal of fortunes, the SNP’s streak of four consecutive Scottish parliament election victories would also come to an end with Labour returning to power for the first time since 2007.
The poll by Norstat (formerly Panelbase) — among the first to be conducted since Yousaf stood down — shows the SNP vote share in a Westminster election would collapse to its lowest level since the 2014 independence referendum. The party would hold 15 of its 43 seats with Scottish Labour winning 28, a dramatic increase from its current two.
It comes after a calamitous week for the SNP in which its grip on power imploded. Yousaf was forced to resign on Monday, days after abruptly ending a power-sharing agreement with the Scottish Greens, who then backed a unionist no-confidence motion in the SNP leader.
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Parliamentary arithmetic would have left his fate in the hands of Ash Regan, the former SNP minister. Beaten for the party leadership by Yousaf, she quit and joined Alex Salmond’s Alba Party last October in a row over liberalising gender laws for trans people.
John Swinney, who served as Nicola Sturgeon’s deputy for her eight-and-a-half years, is expected to become first minister on Tuesday, if no other challengers enter the race.
He will bring Kate Forbes, 34, back into the heart of government, avoiding a potential contest with the former finance secretary, who was narrowly defeated by Yousaf in last year’s leadership election.
In a shift from his predecessor’s focus on identity politics, Swinney has vowed to “govern from the mainstream” and is said to be preparing to sack ministers under plans for a slimmed-down government concentrating on a narrower range of priorities
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Sir John Curtice, the polling expert and professor of politics at Strathclyde University who compiled seat projections, said the “question that now arises is whether the coronation of John Swinney will enable the SNP to turn the page”.
He added: “Even among those who said they would vote Yes in another independence referendum, only 56 per cent said they were now willing to back the SNP for Westminster, as would only two thirds who voted for the party in 2019.”
According to the poll, the SNP would attract votes from 29 per cent of the electorate — a fall of three points in a month — while Labour’s share increased by two points to 34 per cent. This would return 15 SNP MPs and amount to party’s poorest performance since 2010. Under Sturgeon, the SNP became the third largest party at Westminster, winning 56 of 59 Scottish seats in 2015. There are currently 43 SNP MPs.
In a further blow to the nationalists, the Scottish Conservatives, whose vote share remained at 16 per cent, would add three seats to return nine MPs while the Liberal Democrats, on 8 per cent, would boost their yield by one to five MPs.
Support for independence remains evenly balanced, with 48 per cent in favour of Scotland leaving the UK and 52 per cent backing the Union.
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Voting intentions at Holyrood show the SNP at 34 per cent, remaining a point ahead of Labour in constituencies. The Conservatives would pick up 14 per cent of the vote, the Lib Dems 9 per cent, Greens 5 per cent and the remaining 5 per cent going to other parties.
On the more proportional regional list vote, Scottish Labour has edged a point ahead of the 27 per cent who support the SNP. The Tories would win 17 per cent of regional votes, the Greens 9 per cent, Lib Dems 8 per cent, Reform UK 6 per cent and Alba 4 per cent.
Under Curtice’s analysis, this would mean Labour becoming the largest party with 40 MSPs, compared with 38 for the SNP, 24 Conservatives, ten Greens, nine Lib Dems and eight Reform parliamentarians. This would mark an historic breakthrough in Scotland for the party founded by Nigel Farage — although Richard Tice is its leader; Farage is honorary president — as it at least partially replicates its opinion-poll gains in England by attracting some older, Brexit-supporting Tories north of the border.
Labour has been pressing for a snap Scottish parliamentary election, arguing that a third successive SNP first minister since the last contest in 2021 is undemocratic. An election appears to have broad public backing with 42 per cent of voters saying that a fresh election should take place once Yousaf had been replaced, including 26 per cent of SNP voters.
About 25 per cent said the SNP should continue as a minority government and 15 per cent said they should negotiate a fresh power-sharing deal with the Greens to reinstate a pro-independence majority at Holyrood.
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When asked who would make the best first minister from a list of SNP candidates, Swinney and Forbes were neck and neck with the general public on 23 per cent. Stephen Flynn, the SNP leader at Westminster, was backed by 7 per cent, and Jenny Gilruth, the Scottish education secretary, scored 2 per cent. Swinney had a clear lead among 2019 SNP voters, with 33 per cent supporting him compared to 22 per cent who backed Forbes, 11 per cent for Flynn and 2 per cent for Gilruth.
Eighteen per cent of people said they were more likely to vote SNP with Swinney as first minister, including 28 per cent of people who voted for the party in 2019. But 26 per cent of the public said they were less likely to back the nationalists, including 12 per cent of those who did so 4½ years ago.
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Forbes scored similar numbers with the general public with 19 per cent saying they were more likely to back the SNP if she had taken charge but 25 per cent less likely. However, she was much more divisive among her own party with 24 per cent of 2019 SNP voters saying they would be more likely to do so again with her in charge but 23 per cent saying they would be less likely under such circumstances.
“The poll suggests that Mr Swinney is more likely than Ms Forbes to persuade 2019 SNP voters to return to the fold,” Curtice said. “However, that does not guarantee he will be able to overcome the substantial damage that has been done to the SNP’s reputation by the events of the past 12 months.”
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Norstat interviewed 1,086 people aged 16 or over in Scotland between April 30 and May 3.
