Hawaii County Weather Forecast for December 22, 2024
Hilo
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 59 to 67 near the shore to 50 to 56 at 4000 feet. Light winds.
Sunday: Sunny. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to 64 to 71 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon.
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 60 to 68 near the shore to 49 to 57 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 70 near the shore to 45 to 51 near 5000 feet. Light winds.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Lows around 70 near the shore to 45 to 51 near 5000 feet. Light winds.
Waimea
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 60 to 68 near the shore to 52 to 60 near 3000 feet. Light winds.
Sunday: Sunny. Highs around 77 near the shore to 68 to 76 near 3000 feet. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Sunday Night: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 53 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Kohala
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 60 to 68 near the shore to 52 to 60 near 3000 feet. Light winds.
Sunday: Sunny. Highs around 77 near the shore to 68 to 76 near 3000 feet. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Sunday Night: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 53 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
South Big Island
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.
Sunday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight.
Puna
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 59 to 67 near the shore to 50 to 56 at 4000 feet. Light winds.
Sunday: Sunny. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to 64 to 71 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon.
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 60 to 68 near the shore to 49 to 57 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 71 near the shore to 48 to 53 above 4000 feet. Light winds.
Sunday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to 64 to 70 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 68 to 74 near the shore to around 51 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Trades return Sunday night and Monday bringing a few showers windward and mauka. Winds then ease slightly and veer to the SE during the second half of the week.
Discussion
The trade wind belt remains weakened and suppressed south of the islands leaving the forecast area in the zone of light winds and subsidence equatorward of an extended Pacific jet. The guidance has long advertised a kink in the mid-latitude flow developing this weekend, and this is now evident well west of the area near 40N/160E. This buckle in the flow will is evolving into progressive mid-latitude ridge that will amplify as it transits the Pacific during the next several days leading to surface pressure rises over and north of the Hawaiian Islands. This will in turn allow trades to rebound back into the area no earlier than Sunday night and and continuing through at least Monday. A few additional showers can be expected windward and mauka during this time, but high stability and a dry airmass will significantly limit shower coverage and intensity. High pressure then continues its eastward trek thereby returning the islands to a weakened trade wind state for the second half of the week. Winds veer to the SE during during this time in response to a weakening front approaching from the northwest. This will favor a return to a land and sea breeze pattern over the western half of the state. Dry and benign weather prevails for the forseeable future.
Aviation
A strong surface ridge over the Hawaiian Islands will keep light background winds over the area, with afternoon sea breezes and overnight land breezes through the rest of the weekend. This will result in interior cloud build-ups and an isolated shower or two each afternoon, followed by clearing land areas overnight. VFR conditions will prevail, aside from brief periods of MVFR in any showers. No AIRMETs in effect and none are expected.
Marine
Hazardous marine conditions will continue, with the biggest in an extended series of extra large overlapping northwest swells arriving Sunday. The current swell peaked several feet above guidance at 19 to 20 feet at buoy 51001 overnight and at 15 to 17 feet 17 seconds at the nearshore PacIOOS buoys this morning. A short-lived decline in swell is due through much of the night. However, when yet another hurricane force low passed well north of the area last night, its seas generating fetch nosed to within 700 nautical miles of the islands. This proximity increases confidence that the next swell will likely be larger as it rapidly rises early Sunday morning and peaks through the day Sunday. Resulting surf should be giant, in excess of 40 feet along coastlines with the highest exposure, during the peak, and although the current High Surf Warning runs through Sunday night, an extension into the day on Monday is possible. Surf will fall into the High Surf Advisory range sometime during the day on Monday and should decline below advisory levels later Tuesday. Another large northwest swell is expected Thursday and Friday.
This prolonged period of warning level surf, which started on Wednesday, will produce coastal impacts, including significant beach erosion along exposed shorelines and potential overwash onto vulnerable coastal roadways and properties, mainly during Sunday's peak. These impacts will remain likely despite the monthly tidal minima, underscoring the significance of the swell. In addition to the coastal impacts, these conditions maybe be hazardous for mariners transiting in and out of exposed harbors, where strong currents and occasional breaking waves are expected.
Winds across coastal waters will remain gentle and variable through the day on Sunday as a surface ridge lingers over the region. A fast-moving surface high approaching from the northwest will produce a rapid increase in northeast winds Sunday night, followed by fresh to strong trade winds as the high passes to the north on Monday. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for seas in excess of 10 feet, and as winds ramp up, the SCA will be extended. Trades will slowly decline and shift southeasterly Tuesday and Wednesday as the high moves off to the east.
Fire weather
Rainfall remains below normal through the forecast period, but dewpoints remain firmly in the mid 60s and winds remain on the lighter side. No fire weather concerns at this time.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Monday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kona, Kohala, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Big Island East, Big Island North.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for all Hawaiian waters except Maalaea Bay,
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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov