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Ross Perot's political legacy: Clinton, populism, Trump and the tea party

Dallas billionaire Ross Perot's 1992 run for president didn't just block George H. W. Bush's reelection. It reinvigorated populism, put trade and deficit fears high on the national agenda, and marked a turning point in the use of TV.

WASHINGTON -- Ross Perot wasn’t the last billionaire with the audacity to run for president.

He wasn’t the first populist candidate, or the first to use extended infomercials to make a case for pet issues.

But he was the most successful third-party candidate in history. The template he set in 1992 didn’t directly spark the tea party movement or the later election of President Donald Trump, but both owe a debt.

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“His national grassroots movement changed politics forever,” Sen. Ted Cruz said Tuesday after the Dallas businessman died at age 89.

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The last third-party candidate to come close to pulling in as many votes as Perot did was a former president, Teddy Roosevelt, back in 1912.

Both ended up as spoilers rather than winners.

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"I think he'd have won, and I just can't prove it," George W. Bush said in the fall of 2014, recalling his dad’s loss. "I mean, it's just all conjecture, of course. But I think he would have won, because I think ultimately there would have been a, you know, a clear choice between, you know, a guy who had a very good first term and an untested governor."

But Perot did more than just sap support that George H.W. Bush could have used to fend off Democrat Bill Clinton.

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Through force of will, a massive infusion of personal cash and a folksy delivery that lent itself to "Saturday Night Live" caricature, Perot brought demands for a balanced federal budget, campaign finance reform and congressional term limits into the national conversation.

When the tea party came along in 2010, it was fueled by some of the same passions. “Taxed enough already.” Mistrust of an entrenched political elite.

In the 2016 campaign, Trump tapped into the same economic frustrations and insecurities that Perot had identified and stoked when he warned against the pending North American Free Trade Agreement.

"There will be a giant sucking sound going south," Perot warned at the second presidential debate, in October 1992, flanked by Bush and Clinton.

Trump’s vow to “drain the swamp” was an echo of the outside-the-Beltway worldview. But Perot never pointed a finger at illegal immigration, and he crusaded against federal red ink, whereas Trump has broken GOP orthodoxy on fiscal restraint.

Even so, Perot’s foray into politics gave credibility to the idea that someone without conventional government experience should be taken seriously, and Trump is the first president who hadn’t served as a governor, in Congress, or as a general.

The traction Perot achieved certainly didn’t discourage future tycoons.

Media magnate Michael Bloomberg, a former New York mayor, has flirted with a presidential bid over the years, and used his fortune to push for gun control. California billionaire Tom Steyer announced a bid for president on Tuesday, shortly before news broke of Perot’s death. He’s been using his fortune to pressure House Democrats to impeach Trump.

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As for Perot, he spent $62 million of his own fortune on the 1992 race.

Blame for Bush's 1992 defeat

Republicans blamed Perot for costing them the election.

In Texas, home turf both for Bush and Perot, 1.3 million voters cast a ballot for the quirky billionaire. That was 22% of the vote -- substantial, though not enough to change the outcome. Bush topped Clinton 41-37, with a margin of 215,000 votes.

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Nationally, Perot drew 19% -- just under 19 million votes. He won no states or electoral votes. But it was the best showing for a third party or independent candidate since 1912.

Teddy Roosevelt sapped votes almost entirely from his former protégé and fellow Republican, incumbent William Howard Taft. Together, they secured 1.3 million more votes than Democrat Woodrow Wilson, but he trounced them in the electoral college, collecting 435 votes compared to 96 for them combined.

Bush fared better in 1992, but that didn’t keep him in the White House.

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How unusual was the Perot phenomenon? He collected roughly as many votes in Texas as every third-party candidate combined since statehood in 1845.

He hit 30% in Maine, and topped his Texas showing in nearly half the country -- in Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, Utah, Vermont, Washington and Wyoming.

Seeds of the tea party

The Perot movement foreshadowed the rise of the tea party in 2010. But it’s complicated.

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Most tea partiers were basically disenchanted Republicans. Hardly any voted for Democrats. Pollsters found that they favored lower taxes, fiscal restraint, and religiosity in public life. They just didn't trust politicians to follow through.

By contrast, Perot supporters were a mismatch for both major parties.

Like Democrats, they favored abortion rights, national health insurance and regulations aimed at controlling pollution. Like Republicans, they strongly supported gun rights and the death penalty.

Unlike Trump -- or Illinois congressman John Anderson, who ran as an independent after Ronald Reagan trounced him in the 1980 GOP primary -- Perot never sought the nomination of a major party before jumping into the race.

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That made it easier to attract support across party lines and to pursue a quirky platform.

He called for nationwide electronic voting.

He advocated for putting disadvantaged kids into government-funded homes so they could escape poverty, and for improving schools by devoting public resources into research on infant brain development.

He defended capitalism, and also demanded higher taxes on the wealthy.

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He made balancing the budget a topic of kitchen table conversation, at a time when the national debt was a fraction of where it now stands, at $21 trillion.

“Perot captured support from the political and ideological right, left and middle,” said B.J. Rudell, associate director of Duke University’s Center for Political Leadership, Innovation, and Service. “Perot spoke with a folksiness of a non-politician, connecting with voters not through sound bites, but through plain talk.”

Second try

The bitter taste had hardly faded when Perot prepared to run again in 1996, sparking a fresh round of consternation among Republicans.

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He announced in September 1995 on CNN’s "Larry King Live" -- itself a milestone in the evolution of media culture.

"We are currently living deep in the world that Perot helped create. President Trump focuses on cable news, obtaining much of his information via these channels and constantly attempting to shape the on-air conversation," Princeton University historian Julian Zelizer argued on CNN.

King let Perot give out the toll-free number for his upstart party, United We Stand America, and in the next five minutes there were more than 800,000 attempts to call the group's Dallas office.

Such was the excitement he generated, though not among GOP leaders.

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“The Perot voters may not agree with Republicans on every issue, but whatever differences pale in contrast with the fundamental differences they have with the Clinton agenda,” argued the Texas GOP chairman at the time, Tom Pauken.

George W. Bush, then the governor of Texas, warned that “it'll ensure Bill Clinton's reelection.”

Not only had Perot helped to seal his dad’s loss in 1992, in his view, but two years later, Perot endorsed Gov. Ann Richards, days before the younger Bush ousted her.

"The last two races he's been against us," Bush told The News at the time. "He likes to think unconventionally about politics; he's kind of a maverick. ... Anytime you try to guess the motives of Ross Perot, you're led down blind alleys."

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In the end, Perot drew a bit under 7% in Texas and 8.4% nationwide. Clinton fell to Bob Dole 49-44 in Texas on his way to reelection.

The party Perot founded fizzled.

“His political legacy lies with the ideals he set forth,” Rudell said. “In the summer of 1992, a plurality of the country craved someone different, someone who wasn’t defined by party labels. Today, at a time when political and ideological purity are celebrated among Republican and Democratic leaders, Perot’s passing reminds us that many Americans hate purity. They want authenticity.”